System of tax revenues forecasting in Ukraine: theory and reality
The article is devoted to the problem of improving the system of forecasting tax revenues in Ukraine. Forecasting tax revenues in the budget system is a key tool for implementing the state tax policy. This process represents a systematic work on the calculation of tax revenues for the future. The purpose of tax forecasts is to identify, for a certain time period, tax revenues, taking into account their economically justified level.The author proved that this sphere of public administration and economic-analytical practice requires improvement, taking into account progressive developments, which proved their effectiveness in the western countries. The analysis of the forecasting errors of the main budget-generating taxes in Ukraine is carried out by comparing the forecast indicator at the end of the period (taking into account changes that were made during the budget year) with actual values.The article describes the method of forecasting tax revenues. In the given model the level of VAT is influenced by GDP growth, the national currency rate and the growth of VAT in the previous period. The individuals' income depends on the growth of GDP, the dynamics of the national currency rate and the growth of VAT, on the dynamics of excise tax. As for the corporate income tax, it is influenced by the growth of the national currency, the growth of VAT, while this indicator is related to GDP.The method of forecasting tax revenues proposed provides more accurate forecast data than the officially approved Method for predicting budget revenues, which gives grounds for considering it as a promising forecasting tool that deserves further study and improvement.
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